There is not a strong correlation to years with wet winters and hot springs to the amount of precipitation we see during the monsoon. There is a strong correlation to above average Pacific hurricane seasons and wetter than normal monsoon seasons for Arizona. Arizona monsoon 2020: Is rain coming soon? 2020 monsoon driest to date. Years where we saw wet winters and hot springs did not give a strong correlation to a wet vs dry monsoon. Other years where we saw above average Spring temperatures include: 1934, 1936, 1989, 1990, 1992, 2001 and 2017. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for the Bush burn scar and the Bighorn burn scar areas on Thursday. 1. Arizona will lean purple. Here are five predictions for 2020. El Niño, indicated by warmer-than-normal waters in that part of the ocean, has more of an impact on our winter weather but some forecasters think it can offer some clues for the summer, too. That 4 day separation between our first 90 and first 100 degree day was the 3rd shortest time between those temperature milestones that we’ve ever seen in Phoenix! With the chance of wind gusts over 40 mph, we'll have to watch out for blowing dust too. Submitted by Virginia L Wall on May 17, 2020 - 2:39pm ... 2020 - 2:39pm. Reach the reporter at weldon.johnson@arizonarepublic.com. 1973, 1976, 1988, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011 were all years where there was a STRONG La Nina present, and each of those monsoon seasons correlated to below-average rainfall. The above-average temperatures we are experiencing may continue through the summer months, with the drought expanding and worsening in northern Arizona. La Nina is the cooling of the ocean water off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. This warming has a global impact on the weather for the year! The monsoon activity accounts […] 1992 and 2015 were two years with heavy Pacific hurricane activity and we saw 3.29” of rain in 2015 and 4.28” during the 1992 monsoon. Visibilities across parts of central Arizona could drop to a mile or less. “I can’t predict when it’s going to happen, but I’m ever hopeful that it’s going to start soon.”. There were traces of rain in the Phoenix area from dry storms during the last weekend of May that may have caused some people to mistake them for early monsoon storms but that wasn’t the case, said meteorologist Sean Benedict. “We lack any clear signal for monsoon season rainfall,” Taylor said. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The earliest start was June 16 in 1925. Can hot spring temperatures translate into a stormier monsoon season? In 2008 the National Weather Service declared a monsoon season that starts June 15 and last through Sept. 30. The average temperature (taking the average high and low and dividing by 2) of 86.2 degrees was fourth on the all-time list. ... Monsoon 2020. In the seven years listed above where Phoenix endured a hot spring, 4 of the monsoons came out as below average rainfall, while the other three were above average. Does having a wet winter mean we’ll have a wetter monsoon? There are no El Niño or even La Niña (the opposite of El Niño) conditions present this year. Notifications can be turned off anytime in the browser settings. One signal that meteorologists check out when putting together such outlooks is the presence of El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific Ocean. You may be wondering if this year will be a repeat of the “non-soon 2019” or if we’ll see more storms this year. For those wondering about our chances for monsoon rains, the outlook is pretty much a toss-up. Monsoon 2019 ; Nonsoon 2020, Arizona water supply is OK—for now .